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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: Scott Bergquist who wrote (1067)11/30/2000 7:13:19 PM
From: Dan Spillane  Read Replies (2) of 74559
 
No one could possibly be following the advice of the 57 percent of bullish analysts, as demonstrated by negative market action. That is to say, maybe the analyst opinions (or at least of those polled) are not a good indicator.

What I was looking for is a metric that measures how much bad news affects the market--and is multiplied--as compared to how good news is attended to.

Right now such a ratio is probably several orders of magnitude to one (10:1, 100:1 ?)

An example today was Gateway's negative news--that was attended to and multiplied, whereas Tech Data's positive news was completely ignored. One way to look at this would be to compare the relative loss/gain in market caps not only within the specific equities themselves...but others in the market which were affected by the news.

Another interesting and illuminating factor in this case, Tech Data has TWICE the sales revs of of Gateway (5b vs 2.5b)! So in a "sane" market, Tech Data's opinion was, in effect, twice as important as a sector indicator (and thus "2" would be plugged into my proposed bull/bear equation).

Without going any deeper it is easy to see a major market imbalance is present...the news of a company with 1/2 the sales of another completely dominated the other, errantly.
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