Is NVLS gaining market share from AMAT?? Anyone care
to comment? They sounded pretty buoyant during their CC.
mid-quarter update on NVLS.
orders in 4Q to be approx 450 000 000, slightly down
from previously anticipated orders due to pushout from
Korea (Hundai rescheduled investment to 1Q and 2Q).
Opportunities to win orders in december might balance
things out and make up Korean shortfall.
sales will be around 415 000 000 as reported at end of 3Q.
Operating levels as projected relative to GM. Operating
expenses up slightly in dollar terms. Improvement in
SGA and R&D as percent of revenue.
profit of 71 cts per share as previously announced.
implementing SAB101 accounting in 4Q. Revenue declaration
under new rules would be 5-10% lower than above given
guidance. From an economic standpoint, no change to the
company.
outlook going forward: cautious bu optimistic. Major
successes in copper and in low K, in hdp and pdv. Strong
wins over last 2 quarters have positioned NVLS well in
case of downturn. If orders hold, 2001 revs around 2
billions.
questions and answer:
CSFB. Hundai due to business or financing? what will
receivables look like in 4q? Hundai, driven by financing
needs. Factored into that is the DRAM prices going down.
Receivables will be improving.
SSB. Other customers give positive outlook? Asia?
Still positive and investment strategies still intact.
Strong in Asia. In Taiwan, competitive wins causing NVLS
to grow faster than anticipated. No pushouts. Business
technology or capacity oriented? healthy mix, 70% capacity
and 30% new technology buys. First phases of rapid
expansion.
... CFO Smith retiring and is this why sold NVLS stock?
Exercise of options. Continuing process. Not retiring...
some years off. No plans at this time.
RS. More about adoption rate of copper and move to 300mm?
REceivables at risk from Hundai? Other Dram iin trouble?
Copper is accelerating and NVLS is best positioned in the
industry. Major wins at all of the 8in facilities and
most of the 300mm. Very bullish for copper, play itself
out next 2Q. Some DRAM are stronger than others. Find
ourselves strong in strong DRAM manufacturers. Relatively
positive, Samsung, Micron, Infeneon have opportunities.
Hundai receivables: been a good customer for many years
and they have met their past payments. from what we read,
their hardships reside in the construction unit. For their
semi business, hundai is successful.
BoA. Where orders where last Q. About at the 450 000 000
level. Will you restate previous Q due to SAB101?
yes.
MSDW. Order guidance previously? What are the odds for
weakening outlook. Guidance was greater than 1/1. We
think that's o.k. Not give odds in either direction. NVLS
thinks competitive wins in pvd and htp means upside for
NVLS not existent for other semi companies.
SA. Hundai again. pushouts? cancellations? what % of orders.
All pushouts. Will understand how far and low when come
back from Japan.
GS. Roll SAB 101 in. discuss the technicalities. Could
be earnings might not be commensurately down. No bottom
line guidance. No definitive answer for now. When
consolidating Gasonix, implemented as SAB101? include
them in operating results in 1Q2001 using SAB101.
Needham. More SAB101. reporting both ways? use SAB101 this
Q and also give old numbers. Revs lost in 5-10%, is it
copper or 300mm? don't have every single system mapped out.
Lehman. More SAB101. How affect the guidance 2001?
Anything can do to get earlier Rev recognition? In full
implementation will delay rev recognition 100days. Does
not change the economics of the business but initial
implementation requires delay but can get rev previously
shipped to be incorporated into the 4Q. Goal will be to
minimize effect of new accounting practice.
VK. hiring plans in Q4 and next year? at NVLS is to
invest highly in R&D whether downturn or not. Expenses
tightly controlled in SG&A (selective hiring, regionally
focused). other customers with pushouts? only area with
pushout is Korea. We have intimation from others in Korea.
No confirmation yet --potential 1 month flip but have
asked not to assume that by the customer.
WitS. on 2001, product breakdown for rev between innova,
vector vs more traditional products? don't break it out.
Success with vector? across the board or memory?
research shows inroads in the logic market, particularly
with vector, htp and copper. Accelarating rapidly.
Recent TI announcement. Those types of win position NVLS
well whether market soft or gangbuster. Pretty optimistic
view if there is a turndown.
Hill. Foundry business. Strong first part but tapered off.
When expect it to come back? wish I knew that. In the
foundry business, become major piece of NVLS. Don't have
a definitive answer. Seeing shifting to 300mm faster than
expected? Order and booking rates in Taiwan continuing to
grow in 4Q in both 8in and 300mm. More competitive now,
business looks good.
UBSW. When expect additional clarity on SAB101? Next few
weeks. Interest in copper accelerating? beginning of
capacity expansion from some of the first wave custumers
ramping up in a big way. 2nd tier customer accelerating.
Merger with gasonix? Accretive so extremely positive.
Good cultural mix. Integration going well.
.... how big Hundai pushout? don't disclose that.
CSFB. Assuming deterioration, what kind of margin can you
hold in 10% decline from peak revenues? Continue to
gain market share. Only conjuecture that market will go
down. During last downturn, NVLS was most profitable.
Earned 7% after tax. Much more profitable than anyone else
with year finishing at 11%. Repeat: because of positioning,
NVLS expects less of a dip than most other companies.
BoA. Backlog, 4 or 5 months? split for Taiwan and Korea?
Always try to remain at that level. Don't break out by
region on a conference call. Fair to say big exposure to
these countries? No, it's not fair and a lot already been
delivered. Is don Bo a customer? yes.
RS. 2 billion rev implies what assumptions in chip growth?
industry as a whole has grown at 17% for revenue and unit
number in excess of that number. Revenue in a year not
directly tied to revenue level. During downtime, the guys
that win are the ones putting in capacity. Not direct
correlation with rev number. Would like to see growth
rates north of 10%. Allows NVLS grow at a faster rate.
.... guess what March bookings will be? in longer term
planning, really thinks 2 bil or plan for a downturn?
See march sequentially up but won't announce this at
this time. Relative to 2001, thought significantly North
of 2 bil, so doing 2 bil is quite achievable given
product mix and recent wins in copper arena. The pushout
from Hundai is it systemic or 1-time event? financing is
an element of the issue. Other mannufacturers have the
strategy to continue to invest in the downturn. Think
gains on logic side offset decline in DRAM? yes!
CH&Q. COmment on Japanese customers? Continue to see
strength in that market place. US? continue to be pretty
firm.
DowJones. Hundai, reschedule? delayed booking, when they
are going to order. Booking means order. Last Q, said that
booking would exceed 500 million? No didn't say that.
Would end the year with possibilty of 2 bil next year.
.... strength of demand on Taiwanese market? Still appears
firm to us due to competitive wins there. Still watching
due to equity markets, don't have a sign yet they are
pushing out or slowing down.
Thank you from limiting your attempts to extract information
from executives of the company during non-scheduled
public events!!!! |
