has begun to look like the Dow in early '30...makes me think we shouldn't dismiss your total wipe-out theory out of hand.
FWIW, if anyone wants the spreadsheet I created I can email it. It's for the NDX, but that will still give you a good idea of the Naz as well. Just plug in numbers and out comes the index value. When asking myself, what would I pay for CSCO or MSFT going forward given the macro economic deterioration, non repeatable investment income, over 7 billion shares each, and tortured financial statements? Needless to say, I came up with some interesting values.
It's scary to think that if all hell breaks loose and the Naz goes to 1 times sales (god forbid 1 times sales in the new 'conomy) it will be at about, what, 100-200?
I know I'm nuts. The fed will save us. Or someone else will. It's different this time. I'm just a stoopit bear.
BTW- heinz I've been reading a little more about the investment trusts of the 20's and they are strikingly similar to the financial engineering in big cap tech stocks. Wait until they get RealManned with reverse leverage like the trusts did. In year 2000, MSFT, INTC, ORCL, and CSCO will take a combined $10 BILLION in investment income. In a bear market, none of this will be repeatable. This has ZERO to do with the core business, but is going to make YoY comparisons a bitch and sky rocket P/e's assuming prices stay firm (which won't happen). |
