Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: TimF who wrote (129223)	11/30/2000 10:07:54 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (2) of 1582694

I understand how Gateway's warning is a good fundamental reason to worry about AMD, but the moves on other warnings and down grades would seem to have all ready accounted for risk to AMD's business. Its not like AMD has warned. I suppose things can get just as irrational to the down side in a bear market as they can to the upside in a bull market. Tim, The market doesn't want any surprises and so they are anticipating a prewarning from AMD. There is another issue that not many are talking about which is significant...the redemptions by mutual funds. Some of the biggest funds are having to sell their most profitable stocks to raise $$$ for redemptions to clients. That's why I think the selling seems to go in waves and is running so deep. At least its not like I am going to go bankrupt or lose my house but there goes a year of scraping together every dollar I can find just to see it all go up in smoke. Who knows what the bottom will be. NASDAQ 2,000? AMD in single digits? I don't think we will se either but I am not going to make any leveraged bets that we won't. The Nasdaq has a lot of support around 2300-2500 and most long term traders believe that that support will hold. In the meantime, I am hoping that AMD will trade between $14-18 and develop a base in this area. No guarantees of course...a lot depends on whether we have a recession or not. While I haven't been investing too much longer than you, I will say that I believe it will take some time for the tech stocks to come back. I think we will see some improvement when the Feds lower interest rates in the first quarter (I hope). And then the second boost will be when it looks definite that the recession risk has been skirted. I plan to get back into AMD once I am sure a solid base has formed. AMD is a good company and its stock will come back. The one thing I have learned thru this whole mess is that there is no such thing as buy and hold when you are on margin. I got off margin a while back but I wish I had done it much sooner....I would have lost much less. In addition, I wanted to second what tgptnder (sp?) said in his post to you. I too hope that this does not mean you will split. I really have appreciated your posts, particularly thru these very partisan times. You have been one of the few people who has tried to get to the truth and present only the facts. Thanks for that. ted

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