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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 53.85

-4.5%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: Biomaven who wrote (2182)	11/30/2000 10:11:26 PM
From: rkrw	Read Replies (2) of 52153

I appreciate the feedback. I don't think the initial Bayer deal was a true co-promotion, as in 50-50. I do think Scios got excellent terms, maybe 20% flow. JV partner and terms should be revealing. They're on record as saying nothing less than 50-50. We'll see what kind of upfront payment they get. I'm hoping for a heavyweight partner. I think your pricing estimate is probably in the ballpark. Not so clear on 10X sales estimate. CORR is selling for probably 5 times 2001 integrillin sales. They have a true 50-50 with SGP. (Maybe that just means CORR is a good buy). $300M after just a few years may be a bit optimistic imo. We'll see though, I don't have a great feel for the potential sales ramp. I also think Scio is a possible acquisition candidate. Should be less likely if they partner natrecor as I think their internal pipeline is on the thin side. This has been a nice example of resurrecting a drug after an initial FDA rejection (or as the yhoo yahoo's would insist "failure to approve" :-)). Some nice stock picks can be found if mgt has the ability to redo a phase III with strong FDA guidance.

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