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Technology Stocks : Netro Corp - (NTRO)
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To: Mark Oliver who wrote (762)12/1/2000 12:19:01 AM
From: Bernard Levy   of 792
 
Dear Mark:

I apologize for assuming your reference to the
Australian auction was not directed at LMDS frequencies.
Thanks also for pointing out the expansion of the Airstar
product family.

Placing things in perspective, it is now clear that
LMDS licenses have been given roughly similar
values over several years and several continents.
As a reminder, the LMDS auction in the US (A and B blocks
totalling 1.3GHz at 28Ghz or so) brought in around $400M
in Spring of 1998. The recent UK auction brought in $50M,
which is a bit below, but in the same ballpark. Overall
population density is higher in the UK, but areas
with truly high density where it is attractive to
deploy BBFW (primarily Southern England) do not represent
a much higher percentage of total population as high
density areas in the US (the US population tends to be
highly concentrated). The number you give for the
Australian auction seems a bit higher (prorated based
on population) than the UK number, but Australia has also
a highly concentrated population.

I think that the $1B expectation for the 28Ghz auction
in the UK represented a misplaced hope that LMDS licenses
have the same level of attraction as 3G licenses, which
is based on a false analogy (location matters as much
for spectrum as for real estate).

Still, several of the BBFW companies are in miserable
shape. The descent from $100 to $2 on TGNT is one of
scariest scenes of this bear market.

Best regards,

Bernard Levy
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