BC Market Wrap
Well, gee, today was *fun*. Certainly leaves me feeling quite nervous. Fortunately, I covered enough to free up some dry powder for additional opportunities that are going to arise if the market happens to bounce over the next few days.
There is no lasting bottom yet. Still no fear. Not from options players, not from individual investors, not from margin accounts, not from newsletter writers, not from bubblevision, and not from fundholders. Even an intermediate rally will be preceded by a retest of today's lows. So, gather 'round the campfire, and let's check a few of my favorite momentum plays gone bad:
WEBX - Webex Communications. The name alone screams "bad idea". Late stage I-nut IPO. I hadn't seen this one before. Nearly $1B on less than $20M in revenues. Hmmmm... 50 times sales in an I-nut in a bear market. Bad, bad idea. Technically, it is retesting its recent breakdown at 30; textbook selling opportunity.
A reasonable entry on MCDT could be very rewarding. BRCD they are not, but they have an equally ridiculous valuation.
On the topic of SANs, BRCD is probably not done unwinding yet. It bumped its head up against 200DSMA today, which could mean this little burst of short covering/earnings buying may meet its end soon. How does a forward PE of 200 sound in a tech bear market? LOL! And with solid overhead resistance at just over 200, risk is clearly limited.
Watching AETH for a re-entry. Wireless stock-trading tools may not be worth $2.2B in a bear market.
NETE Netegrity - the name alone sounds like a great idea. Actually it may be a fine company - but at $1.4B on a $15M quarter, it's a tad expensive in a tech bear.
Trying to re-enter CIEN.
VRTS - nice bounce. Who says the tout is dead? Excellent selling opportunity.
A good entry is everything. Limit orders set at virtually impossible extremes yield excellent entries, which can sometimes mean even a sloppy exit can be had at a profit. Entries at extreme limits give you time to gauge the behavior of the market before your position gets away from you.
BC |
