DEC 1 INDEX UPDATE
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The discussion now is whether or not the NAZ/NDX hit a bottom, whether its a short-term or mid-term or long-term bottom.
I believe that there is some support that the NDX did form some sort of a bottom, at least short-term, and possibly mid-term(30 days).
From the following chart, one will notice that when the volume hit 2.5B or higher and significant rally followed.
1) early APRIL - volume spike over 2.5B, NDX rallied about 750 pts(most of it in the 1st day).
2) mid APRIL - volume hit 2.5B, NDX rallied about 700 pts
3) mid OCT - volume slightly under 2.5B, NDX rallied about 500 pts
stockcharts.com[W,A]DDCAYIMY[DD][PB50!B200!D13,2][VC60][IUI8,5!UL8!LA5,13,9]
The above is not statistically viable but should still be mentioned.
The NAZ NEW LOWs hit 843 which exceeded the previous NEW LOWs of around 600 of APRIL. This spike greater than the APRIL NEW LOWs is a sign of some sort of capitualation. Could it still get lower immediately? Anything is possible, but for now it should be considered a significant enough of a peak for now, until proven otherwise. However, Im still not saying that this is the major bottom since back in OCT 1998 the NAZ NEW LOWs got to the 1500 range.
stockcharts.com
Assuming that yesterday's lows was some sort of a bottom, the question is which PEAK do we measure from. Should it be the SEPT PEAK at 4080, of the OCT PEAK at 3315, or just the very short-term PEAK of 11/27 at 2914. Regardless, here are all 3 FIB LEVELs:
1) 4080-2426 = 3055(38%) 3253(50%) 3451(62%)
2) 3315-2426 = 2764(38%) 2870(50%) 2977(62%)
3) 2914-2426 = 2611(38%) 2670(50%) 2729(62%)
Again, assuming that yesterday's lows was some sort of a bottom, it is important to remember that the probability of a retest of those levels is high. One possible senerio is a quick 500(approx) pt rally, which would fall in line with the volume spike, then some sort of a retest. An approximate 500 pt rally would also put the NDX back near the middlw of the Bollinger Bands.
Seeya |
