re: negative sentiment building:
The question is, how much of this is already in the stocks?
IMO, in the stocks now is:
1. a soft landing in the economy, causing a
2. modest deceleration in anticipated chip demand, with the current stuffed inventory channels getting cleared out after 1 or 2 quarters more, causing
3. a few pushouts (again, by 1-2 quarters) for capacity builds, by semis with no cash and weak access to credit, causing a
4. flattening or small downturn in bookings, from current high levels.
IMO, what is not in the stocks is:
1. recession in 2001
2. severe downturn in chip demand
3. cancellations of semi-equip orders, as chip companies put off technology builds (like 300mm) for over a year, like they did in 1998 and 1996,
4. causing the typical severe downturn in bookings seen with every previous cyclic downturn in this industry. |
