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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED
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To: FaultLine who wrote (21404)12/1/2000 3:02:35 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) of 65232
 
Fed Gov Bramlee said today "risk of economic slowdown now outweighs risk of inflation"

yday Fed Gov Poole said something like "if and when the the stock market decline begins to affect spending and generally the economy, the Fed will respond by lowering interest rates"

past pattern: after three consecutive NAPM readings under 50, the Fed has cut interest rates by the next quarter
NAPM went from 48.3 in Sept to 47.7 in Oct, reported today
I believe Aug NAPM was under 50
NAPM under 50 means reduced mfg activity

I have a big complaint with national econ data
it should include Mexico and Canada
since NAFTA, our labor market and mfg capacity is of continental proportions, not national
after 1995 NAFTA was signed, our unemploymt went under 5% even as inflation dropped or stayed even
that is the effect of Mexican labor
it must be factored, but Phillips Curve dont factor it
I realize the Fed doesnt have complete access to Mex and Canada data

positions are changing on the Fed Board
/ Jim
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