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Strategies & Market Trends : Love shack

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To: Grandk who wrote (130)	12/1/2000 5:09:03 PM
From: Grandk	Read Replies (1) of 322

Abby Cohen works for GS. At market close today, they had this to say: Friday December 1 4:02 PM ET Goldman Sachs Says Recession Risks Rising NEW YORK (Reuters) - Influential U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs Friday revised its estimate for growth in the October-December period to a 2.7 percent annual rate from 3.8 percent and said recession risks were rising. Goldman said its forecast of 3.1 percent annualized growth for the first half of 2001 was also at risk given mounting evidence that momentum in the world's largest economy is slowing. Citing a sharp rise in claims for unemployment benefits and a sluggish manufacturing sector, Goldman said the economy was decelerating more quickly than it had expected. ``The small downward revision to third-quarter real GDP growth -- to 2.4 percent from 2.7 percent -- was disappointing in the sense that it revealed more import penetration than first estimated and only modest progress by U.S. firms in reducing the pace of stockpiling,'' Goldman economists said in a note to clients. ``Inventory correction is thus likely to persist into 2001, heightening the risk of a hard landing should demand falter.'' Goldman said it believed the Federal Reserve was not yet ready to cut interest rates as central bankers wanted to wait for slowing growth to generate some slack in the tight labor market, where unemployment is at a 30-year low of 3.9 percent. But it said the Fed was likely to remove its bias that inflation poses the greatest risk to the giant economy when it meets on Dec. 19 to ponder monetary policy. U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the fourth straight month in November, offering still more evidence the economy is slowing, according to the National Association of Purchasing Management's (NAPM) closely watched index of manufacturing activity.

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