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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting
QCOM 170.90-1.3%Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: Valueman who wrote (5083)12/1/2000 5:10:22 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (1) of 196554
 
<font color=red>Get IT Here .... Oh, I've just noticed that SI doesn't like people using colour in headings so they've cancelled it! Spoilsports.

Gee Vman, that was a succinct analysis of Tero's comments!

The big thing in all this remains spectrum efficiency. The TDMA world wastes spectrum. Spectrum costs a lot of money because it is in short supply [in a few years].

Right now, the cost of a minute has little to do with the value of spectrum because a minute is 20c or so and the spectrum component of that cost is something like 1c or less. The rest is marketing hype, offices, salespeople, profit, civil engineering and stuff. When push comes to shove and market share becomes crucial and price wars start, spectrum efficiency will be paramount.

It is then that the faulty ATT decision for TDMA, GSM, GPRS and a long, slow pathway to 3G will be revealed in all its stupidity. I think ATT must have chosen TDMA because it rhymes with their name, sort of, and looks similar.

Leap Wireless is showing what counts. They are selling 1000 minutes a month to people. That's what people want. Lots of cheap minutes of yakking and lots of cheap or free Internet - IT.

The price wars will sort out who has made the right investments. Cheap will be in fashion.

At present, it's probably cheaper to install GSM than CDMA because they'll be slashing their prices to retain business. Hence CDMA infrastructure is more expensive than TDMA or GSM. But that will change as CDMA capacity continues to build and buildout costs reduce and spectrum efficiency starts to bite.

There are going to be some fun price wars! Profit will hinge on teeny margins. ATT shareholders will learn about efficiency at that time and that technology DOES matter, even if consumers don't know a TDMA from a GSM or CDMA.

Mqurice
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