Maria talks to James...
starts by James skiing downhill.... Hummmm, chasing his
stock?
James: Think new technology applications are just
beginning. In 2001, looking for 20% growth. Wait and see,
won't assess overall demand. Non-commital.
Maria: Do you think there's a train wreck coming? Missed estimates?
James: We haven't seen customers cancel orders.
Never know, but don't expect cancellations. Worldwide
demand for chips will provide good opportunities.
Maria: What catalyst for stock next 6 months?
James: humm.... (shit, will she stop asking me the
same darn question, WE ARE NOT GOING BANKRUPT, O.K.)
Maria: Inventory correction or end of cycle?
James: Usually inventory correction, longterm,
demand continues and huge opportunity.
Maria: Business slowdown? Growth over last year?
James: We've identified significant amount of business.
Japanese finalize plans in February time frame. Last year
there was hesitation but it turned out to be great year.
Whether customers will authorize spending, make
determinations more concrete, will have to wait after
election... (TALK ABOUT BUSH/GORE, SHE'LL UNDERSTAND THAT!).
Maria: thanks, James, for telling us what we new.
MSDW analyst. Maria thinks Morgan edged. Analyst
thinks significant slowdown first 1/2 of next year.
See increasing signs of pushouts. Thinks many chip
makers will delay installations.
HE HE HE, END OF THE WORLD SCENARIO, I AM AN ANALYST!
I WILL DOWNGRADE ON MONDAY...
Maria: Think this it is time to buy AMAT?
Lot closer to trough than peak levels.
Trading about 2x forthcoming sales. Close
to 1x historical low. Thinks over 2-3 months,
create deep value investor opportunity.
Maria: Does it mean buy now?
Yes, thinks only 20% downside in small
caps. Thinks downside in AMAT is 32$ but upside is
150$ in next few years.
HE HE HE, NO ONE EXPECTED ME TO RECOMMEND BUYING THE
STOCK... |
