First, read this:
Message 14927956
Next, what Maverick wrote and my responses:
>>>First off, the machine count differences have nothing to do with the test manual recounts.
Lets take Miami-Dade - they did a test recount in 3 precincts - which gave Gore 6 votes more than before. Now, if you are like Gore - you would argue - see take that by all the precincts and extrapolate it and I get over 800 votes , blah, blah, blah
However, any first year statistics student would tell you - that is an incorrect assumption.
The 3 precincts where the test manual recount was done in Miami Dade were heavy Democratic. Over 85% - 90% went for Gore on Election day. So, if you applied statistical laws to this, it proves that the outcome of the election if a full manual recount is done in Miami-Dade would not affect the outcome of the election - as statistically and appropriately extrapolated, the outcome of the test recount shows that actually Bush would garner more votes.
I know that will be hard for some of the lower liberal life forms on this thread to understand - but the basic concept of statistics proves this correct. If there was a net gain of only 6 votes in 3 precincts that went 85%-90% Gore - then when votes were recounted in precincts that went 50%-50% - Bush would garner 1 to 2 more votes, and in precincts which went 80% Bush - Bush would garner more than 6 votes.
Thats why Miami Dade initially rejected the full manual recount. then after being pressured by the Dems, and changing their mind to do another count, this was actually proven out in the partial recount that Miami did complete. They first did all the Democratic districts - yielding only 150 or so votes for Gore. They halted the partial count as the Republican districts were to follow.
So, again - my initial statement stands - there is NOTHING in FLA law that REQUIRES a Full Manual recount.<<<
Maverick Ellen clearly cited a Florida law that, in fact, allows Gore a right to a Full Manual Recount. You can't deny that. Also, once it's shown via the sample that the difference could effect the outcome of the election that manual recount must happen.
The extrapolation you're citing is not a known given, but rather it's a theory. It's a less likely theory than the one claiming those who undervoted didn't wanna vote in the presidential election.
Big difference though. You, Maverick, haven't counted the votes to prove your theory, but the Miami-Dade folks who voted for president really didn't have their votes counted at all, thus producing 10,000 undervotes, non-votes.
Were the bulk of those 10,000 undervotes votes of citizens not wishing to participate in the presidential election? What sill James Baker-like thinking! And silly anyone who follows him on such a notion.
How come?
Because of the not-to-be-denied comparative of voting patterns drawn from optical scanner voting systems with punch-card voting systems a pattern among the undervotes can be determined.
What is it?
Nonvotes, undervotes, for the presidence with Florida's optical scanners showed 3 in 1,000. In Palm Beach County it was 22 in 1,000. On average, throughout 48 counties statistically studied in Florida (see 11/26 Boston Sunday Globe, p.A-31), there were 15 per 1,000.
Since the optical scanners are near-complete accurate, we see only three voters out of a thousand wanted not to vote in the presidential election. That means in the instances of 15 to 22 out of 1,000 many of those voters wanted and did vote in the presidential election.
What this also tells us is that dimple ballots should be counted. Becuase if you didn't count the dimpled ballots, there'd be an extraordinarily high abundance of non-presidentialvoted ballots which the optical scanners show us is not the case.
Maverick, your numbers are all off. If all four counties counted the dimpled ballots in a fair and expeditious manner, Gore would be thousands of votes ahead of Bush.
In fact, I say give Gore his original request but give it cleanly with all counties using the same standard: Recount Volusia, Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade using the same dimpled standards with the percentage of non-votes known from the optical scanners used as a backdrop to know you're counting the dimpled ballots right. |
