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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis

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To: Square_Dealings who wrote (37023)	12/2/2000 5:38:52 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) of 42787

>>Not sure how low the dollar has to come down to trigger a rate cut<< A rate cut would weaken the dollar further. Higher rates give added value for the dollar to foreign money traders. If you are hoping for a rate cut you better start buying dollars. The dollar is the last piece of the puzzle that has to fall before we get a real washout. The strong dollar has been what has been minimizing the damage thus far. Now that it has started falling, the drop in the markets are looking worse than it does to us if you are using foreign currency. This could trigger an outflow of outside investors who were seeking shelter here in this island of prosperity that AG said we could not be. Of course no one listened. Eddie - I don't think you can compare PE ratios of the NASDAQ to the DOW. Although valuations got out of hand, growth was and is much more rapid in tech than in selling KO or cars or Pampers etc. Established long term brick and mortar should have lower PE's than fast growing technology stocks. Of course the faster the candle burns the sooner it burns out. <gggg> But seriously, I think some tech is starting to get more realistic and many of the DOW stocks are getting insane now. If labor cost go up and sales slow, why should a DOW stock that grows at 10 - 15% a year deserve a PE ratio of 40 - 80? The real trick is trying to figure out what tech stocks won't be hurt as much in a slow down and tehn figure out where the values are. So far, I don't like any of the big names but some fo teh smaller ones are getting OK. I have to admit that my play last night was a risky one and I stayed away from tech for the most part. I was bidding on some tech but the only fill I got was SLB which scared the heck out of me as it has been plunging fast for the last few days but I had a 60 target and bought a few calls. Thank God it bounced hard today and I am back out of it. Too much too fast for me. The real paradox is the gold stocks. Some are up and some aren't budging. As to the other poster on why DOW 10390 or 10370 or 10300 etc are important, many have trend lines there. I have a middle fork tine there which if breached points to around 9500 next. Many others have various other methods but are all in the same ball park. Good Luck, Lee

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