In technology, you're probably fooling yourself if you think you can forecast events even one year out, let alone five. It's interesting that MSFT and INTC were added to the DOW just as they seem to have matured into the type of slow-growth, large-industrial companies you describe. However, unlike most of MSFT's peers in this group, there's a kicker, namely the possibility that something will materialise in one of the areas you list (or some other) and carry them, for a while, on another large growth run. This is something you're not likely to see ever again with (say) oil or auto companies. Look at the market caps of some of the other software companies that have sprung up in the internet space, most of them with sketchy revenues - there's really not much to stop MSFT from someday taking its share of those markets (if they really exist).
I'm wondering if on Monday I should step once more into the breech and pick up another block of MSFT. I still have enormous cash reserves on the sidelines. Anyone have any thoughts, price targets, etc.? My main concern is that the market is still in a downtrend that could take us to 2200 on the Nasdaq (or, in a complete rout, below 2000). Is there any chance MSFT is going revisit $52 or below? |
