Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Tommaso who wrote (80588)	12/2/2000 12:08:12 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) of 95453

Tommaso; Iraq's embargo happened, but it's also factored in... ie: << ..."Crude oil prices, after an initial rally, slid as traders expected the standoff would end soon." >> - of course; if Iraq shuts off supply and keeps it shut - then that's another story. PS: I think someone mentioned the possiblity of ole Saddam welcoming the son of Senior Bush into office with a little embargo crisis a while back... We shall see... This could become a very important lesson to all here who plan to continue to be longterm Oilpatch investors. 1. This is , was and will allways be a "Cyclical Sector" - it is not a longterm buy & hold growth stock sector. 2. Overall Market risk and/or weakness can cap even the most historically bullish combined underlying fundamentals in industry history AND the highest combined Oil & Gas commodity prices in history. #1 is oft forgotten; #2 was never broadly accepted here - but; should a Saddam embargo not light a fire under the OSX; then #2 should be an ephiphany as well... I hope those who were here through the prior Oilpatch cycles of the 70's & the 80's will add their commentary; but it seems like many, if not most here; allready forgot lessons learned from 1997-1998. If we continue to sell off through peak heating demand season and into $7 Nat Gas & $35 Oil, thru a Saddam embargo and into record earnings - maybe, just maybe - we'll all truly learn just what a "cyclical" sector is - how & when to trade it; and how it relates to the broader market - obviously the oilpatch is a very small (subsector) tail wagged by a very large (market) dog and that it little matters if the the fundamentals are even historically at their bullish zenith; if the broad market story is negative... this has not been, is not and probably will not be - a "safe haven" investment sector and just like the 97-98 cycle taught us; the peak in sharprice & index valuations will occur much, much earlier into the cycle than anyone anticipates...and the downward slope will arrive much, much sooner and into a much more positive fundametnal environment than many will be able to accept. Be early to arrive & perhaps even earlier to leave... and one can be a Pig in the Patch; but not a Hog... Could be a very nice "relief" rally if Gore conceeds soon; but I think the overall market trend is still down and again; the Big & Easy Money has allready been made... yes; we could catch a move back up thru OSX 120, but we could also continue down to OSX 80... have to watch the broader market signals more than our own internal ones; as we are NOT controlling our own destiny here in the Oilpatch...

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