when traders like you, who can not keep shares more then day or two, will drive price down.
Investors like you that bought in at the top are getting your heads torn off and they aren't through with you yet.
when guys like you brough prices to the floor
You ego only surpasses your ignorance. Why do you think YOU or any other one person can move the market on a stock that trades as many shares as csco.
You don't have a clue and the more you post the more you prove that.
If you positions were taken within the last 2 years you are getting close to breakeven and before this is over you will be losing money.
What a joke.
Don't run off. I am just now beginning to understand who you really are. I think you are Abby J. in drag. :-)
Monty
PS
Mutual Funds & Personal Finance
Monday, December 4, 2000
Managers Weigh Signs Of Market Bottom
Some Say Big Volume Is Mark Of Capitulation; Others Demur
By Peter McKenna
Investor's Business Daily
Early in World War II, after the British won a key victory, Winston Churchill warned his countrymen against premature celebration.
"We have not reached the beginning of the end," he said. "We have reached the end of the beginning."
With the Nasdaq 50% below its March high, punctuated by a 4% fall on Thursday, the question now is: Have we reached the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning?
If the heavy selling on Thursday, when Nasdaq trading volume reached a near-record 2.74 billion shares, was a capitulation, then the market may have reached a bottom.
It would mean that the last of the weak holders have been disgusted by the slumping market and have sold out, and that people looking to invest their money outnumber those looking to sell their investments.
But was Thursday's action a capitulation or a prelude of what's ahead?
Divided Opinion
A quick survey of chief executives and fund managers found opinion is divided. Some believe we have emerged from the worst of the selling, others think there is more to come.
Tom Madden oversees the investment of $17 billion in assets as chief investment officer of Federated Investors. He doesn't think the market capitulated Thursday.
"I would love to say it was a capitulation," he said, "but it was not. I saw none of the signs of panic that normally accompanies the bottom of a bear market. There's still a buy-the-dips strategy in the market, and that does not happen at a true bottom."
Specifically, Madden didn't see a dramatically negative breadth on Thursday, meaning there were not far more stocks reaching new lows than new highs.
He also did not see massive redemptions at mutual funds, meaning that investors didn't pull their money out of funds in a burst of panic.
"During the next few trading days we will have countertrend rallies, but they will be buying-on-the-dips rallies. Then the market may well go back down," Madden said.
While he believes Thursday wasn't an authentic selling climax, Madden says the lion's share of the damage is behind us.
"The question now," he said, "is how much time must elapse before we get a real bottom and the Nasdaq can stage a legitimate, durable rally."
Madden thinks this rally will take place in 2001, probably midyear, and he reckons it will take a Fed easing of interest rates to spark it.
Pat Adams, manager of $110 million Choice Focus Fund, has a more positive attitude.
"On Thursday," he said, "I talked with a number of the biggest trading firms on the Street. They said it was their biggest trading day ever, with many million-share blocks going off on the sell side. But there were buyers for these stocks. At the end of the day, people were aggressively buying tech stocks."
This buying, according to Adams, was a signal that the market had hit a technical bottom.
Adams disagrees with Madden that any rallies after Thursday will be buying on dips, rather than signs of a legitimate rebound.
"People want to come back into tech," he said. "They're just nervous right now. But that will fade when they realize we have hit bottom."
It's encouraging that heavyweights such as Microsoft and Cisco Systems got taken apart Thursday, Adams says, because they are now such bargains that buyers will come in.
Another reason Adams sees the market at the bottom is the action of hedge funds. He thinks that more short sellers than ever before are covering their shorts, which is the sign of a market bottom.
"Hedge funds," he said, "have made a lot of money shorting. Now they are nervous that we have hit a technical bottom; they know there is a lot of value in the market that will not be ignored."
Unlike Madden, Adams figures a rebound could be sparked if the Fed simply goes to a neutral policy without lowering rates.
The wild card that might spoil a rebound, he says, is market uncertainty about the presidential election.
"There has been panic about the election during the past three weeks," he said, "but it did not cause the sell-off on Thursday."
Afraid Of Gore?
This panic could resume, Adams says, if George Bush isn't elected president. "I think the market will be unhappy if (Al) Gore wins, simply because they have already factored in a Bush win. A Gore victory would mean more uncertainty, and we would go back down again."
Chris Argyrople, a partner at Delta Partners, a $10 million hedge fund, disagrees with Adams' assumption that hedge-fund managers, particularly those with large short positions, fear a market bottom.
"The economic situation we face is not good," he said. "The market direction will be determined by the fundamental health of companies and the economy, nothing more."
Company fundamentals are getting worse as the economy slows, he says.
"The market has already factored in a good amount of the slowdown in fundamentals," Argyrople said. "We might just stay in a narrow range with a downward bias until earnings improve and the economy picks up."
Argyrople cautions that market rallies in coming weeks could be nothing more than "window dressing on very thin volume." |
