Oclaro, Inc. (Avanex-Bookham) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Oclaro, Inc. (Avanex-Bookham)

OCLR 8.260

0.0%

Dec 10 4:00 PM EST

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To: tinkershaw who wrote (1216)	12/2/2000 4:53:00 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) of 2293

OT: Econ 101, yet again...... Hi Tinkershaw, You say: In the market money will move away from over-valued opportunities (relative to risk) to undervalued opportunities (relative to risk).......If the market is even remotely efficient this result has to occur. I am not seeing a complete picture of the choices here. What of the millions of individuals who might see that the place that their 401k or IRA money might be better preserved is in money markets accounts for the next few quarters? Then you have no buyers to match sellers. And the bottom falls out, almost as a self-fulfilling prophesy, and as the perfect mirror image to the market of Oct. '99 thru March '00. Would not this be at least as likely as an efficient market? In other words, the clearest "undervalued opportunity" I see right now is the opportunity to exit the equity market altogether and wait out the storm with cash for another day. As I see it, only a compulsive gambler would simply rotate within one financial market, the equity market, or its derivatives, when other opportunities for preserving capital abound. You stated that the last liquidity trap in the U.S. occured in 1929. The last one I am aware of world-wide that can be documented was the Japanese market from 1989 forward. There is compelling anecdotal evidence that the Korean, Indonesian, Maylasian and Argentine markets are in the throes of the same malaise at present. Best, Ray

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