Mark, I do not see why everyone is blaming the Greenspan and the fed, they have been telling us since their first interest rate hike that they are going to reign in the irrational exuberance, and they have. We are now on the naz just at where the last crazy flight started to take place October 1999, and even there (and now) prices of many "high flyers" are still high. The Fed's want to instill the fear of "God" in a generation of new investors that have never lived through a real bear market, and are not going to rush to the rescue, until they perceive a real recession is coming. Of course, once they move, it may be a little too late, but a lot of the excesses in the market will have been wrung out. I expect AG to change his stance to neutral on Dec 19th (causing a mini rally, starting probably a week before in "anticipation"), but not touch the fed's rate until late winter/early spring (Late February/early March). Even such a move, will, IMTO, only create a counter cyclical rally next year (from a bottom somewhere around their easing), and that bottom will probably be retested (and "bettered") later in the year.
Good luck out there, i do not think that we have seen the end of this.
Zeev |
