Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: GaAs52 who wrote (80608)	12/2/2000 5:16:24 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (5) of 95453

GaAs52; Greenspan has continually warned - that the Fed can not do another LTC type of bail out... He also showed a true sense of panic in the opinion of some; off camera on the Hill; in his haste to push new Banking Failure reform thru congress. Look at the derivative positions of the major US Banks - they had to bail out LTC out of huge short - Gold carry trade position; then a year later the US Banking derivative positons nearly tripled during the additional stomp out of the Sept 1999 Gold Rally... they don't have any fingers left to plug any more holes in the dike... the "Big One" is coming... We've got serious problems people; history is going to unfold - I am positive of such. I am literally unwinding some business interests to be poised to make a leveraged play in both physical Gold/Silver & the "unhedged, profitable, low/no debt Gold/Silver Mining stocks" in addition to my puts on select tech indicies. The writing is on the wall. What is frustrating is there is so much manipulation in this market... that Iraq's embargo is met with a fall in crude prices... the OSX is falling into record earnings & Crude & Gas Prices... we "should" be 10' Tall & Bulletproof as Big Dog says; but we are not being allowed to be, nor do I think we will allowed to be....for "now" anyway...it is truly time to "Trade the Traders" and not the underlying fundamentals... Oil & Gas futures contracts were probably the play since this summer... vs. the Oilpatch stocks and we may see OSX stocks fall further into the face of still rising, even ramping Oil & Gas commodity prices if the broad market selloff accelrates. I don't know if we are prepared for; or can understand, or will be able to relate to the very real possibility of $45-$50 Oil, $10 Nat Gas and OSX 65 ? We could literally see that; as I am not so sure that even a spike in commodity prices into a major market meltdown would not be met with further liquidation here. Could the OSX rise into a rapid market blow off to NAZ 1850/ DOW 7750 ? What if the the Oil Stocks get sold off to meet margin, or fund redemptions in other sectors - will the Oilpatch stocks just become redemption currency ? I don't think the true - energy investors can move the OSX against the tide and in a market blow off; only the "die-hard" oil investors will be interested in holding here; the others will be selling - selling it all & selling it now. Don't know if anything other than Gold/PM stocks is going to hold up...I really think the Sh!^ is getting ready to hit the fan. I've spent 3 days doing extensive reading. Looking at that implosion in 3rd world markets that is taking place; looking at charts of the debt levels of US companies, looking at the imploding corporate junk bond market, combing the house of cards balance sheets of the Citicorp's of this market and I allready know personally & firsthand of the collapsing US Consumer finance & mortgage markets... I know the Associates & Commercial Credits inside out - I heard Bill Seidman warn us that twice as many Banks are at insolvency risks as collapsed during the S&L crisis; I've heard Greenspan loud & clear warn - the he can't bail out another LTC, I've heard about the "fear in his eye's" in pushing Bank Failure reform thru congress.... We've got "big trouble in little china" folks...this week the dike cracked & light was shown upon the darkness...we've seen the enemy & this time - the enemy is us ! The Bubble is popped and it aint coming back and this time - there is no "Greenspan Put". <<This boom cycle has produced some bullish propaganda historians will find difficult to comprehend. And while the general perception has it that this protracted boom has created unprecedented wealth throughout the country, it is today pertinent to consider the old Austrian Economists’ belief that financial and economic bubbles create little true economic wealth, and more likely destroy wealth. This great concept takes on ever greater importance when foreign borrowings are used to finance the fateful boom.>> prudentbear.com I truly believe that we are about to see history unfold; with the greatest transfer of wealth in modern history (from individuals to the investment bankers)turning into the greatest swing to governmental dependance in modern American history... potentially the changing the face of America forever... I honestly believe this.

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