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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Nov 7 4:00 PM EST

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To: John Rowton who wrote (63568)	12/2/2000 5:38:26 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (2) of 99985

John Rowton: Hardly an "off the wall" question. However, it is a question that will only be answered in hindsight. No one really knows for sure how this decline is going to play out...no one! Educated guesses are all any of us can make. History is the guide and during this very long bull market capitulation events have marked ends to several of the market slides, but not all of them. If you take a look at the NYA (NYSE Composite) going back about thirty years, you will find that the declines ending in 74, 82, 90 and 94 were not punctuated with a capitulation day. In addition, looking at the COMPX (NASDAQ Composite) during the same time period the declines ending in 74, 82, 90, 94, 97, were not punctuated with a capitulation day either. I would define a downtrend capitulation as a dramatic intraday sell off marked by significantly higher than average volume. In other words a significant spike down in prices coupled with a significant spike up in volume. Regards, LG

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