Regarding the place of SanDisk in the overall market for removable flash memory, take a look at the article in today's BARRON'S, page MW5, part of the "Trader" article discussing SanDisk and its competitors. The last paragraph notes that "The [flash memory] cards are hot items, and will become hotter still as the sector expands and more manufacturers ramp up to ovfer devices that require them. Other companies in the game, including Toshiba, Samsung and Hitachi, but SanDisk is the leader. Its shares have been beaten up badly, falling to 40 from over 150 this year. A recovery to 50-55, about 40 times next year's forecast earnings is -- yes, in the cards."
I don't know where they get this rather pessimistic earnings forecast, but at least BARRON'S now joins the limited number of publications and analysts that have optimistic views. This should be good for about 5 points or more on Monday.
My own view is that earnings for next year should reach somewhere between $1.50 and $2.00, and based on the extremely strong and consistent growth record, a PE of 60 to 70 would not be out of line, even in a market which is rather pessimistic toward technology stocks. This would give a price target closer to 90-100, not 50-55.
Art Bechhoefer |
