Thanks Lee...let me add, that I think the October unemployment report was a "gift" from Bill to Al.....I think we'll see a nice uptick in November...expecting 4.1%...
Just spoke with friends/family in Calif., Austin, Colorado Springs.....all 3 talked about hearing about layoffs, and, especially, commercial owners getting killed/maybe going bankrupct having accepted stock options in lieu of down payment/rent...now these companies are going out of biz, lenders holding the bag..
Dot-com crash might be our mini-S & L....although, I think it'll be localized to certain regions of country..However, if Greenspan doesn't cut soon (at least by March, maybe sooner)...this thing could get real ugly....manufacturing output is falling fast, lending situation worse since '90....if Greenspan kills the tech growth engine by being too stingy, we will hit a recession IMO...the sacrifice will be bringing the dollar back down (relative to Euro, yen), but that had to happen anyway..
As said, although I think Greenspan would love to prove once and for all he is not the market's savior, I think his moderate instincts will win out here...and despite all the other bad, bear data out there...Greenspan is the one guy who can make the "Naz bounces up/down within the 1990 log channel argument" somewhat irrelevant (witness the 1994 dead market- did not bounce between channel up/down/middle, the surge above channel line in '98, and then the super-bubble Y2K move....The Fed can change the rules of the 1990 Log Chart game..
I think a Fed rate cut in December would make a huge difference to ending the downward momentum (spark a rally short-term of course, and then we would start re-testing), but I don't think we'll get it....and, therefore, the 2000-2200- (or lower)- scenario is in full force, and soon....
I really struggle with "is it 2200 or worse" though.. |
