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Technology Stocks : Applied Micro Circuits Corp (AMCC)

AMCC 8.450

0.0%

Feb 3 4:00 PM EST

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To: Raymond Duray who wrote (1012)	12/2/2000 9:57:16 PM
From: techanalyst1	Read Replies (2) of 1805

Do you know where the term "rosacea" came from? It's the latin form of "rosa ceus" which means "made of roses". Appropriate you picked that very term I suppose. The market has been a bed of roses... a quick bloom last spring but lots of thorns the last 2 1/2 years. Just a few companies were able to show hyper growth and investors piled into those names. Sure everything seemed to be coming up roses in the Spring and valuations got out of hand in the whole entire market. Too much Miracle Grow but not enough plants with real roots. As the bloom came off, investors continued to move into the names that could deliver growth and now they're exiting, surely worried that their roses will just not come back. Does that mean that there is only a bed of thorns as the economy slows? I don't think so. The market is pruning all the roses and plucking out weeds. Good gardeners know that what look like ugly sticks with thorns will once again bloom and don't worry too much about the next few months of winter. In fact pruning makes them stronger. Will amcc go lower? Maybe so. It's not what I would call "cheap" by historical standards and just as we had sky high valuations, we may get shares undervalued if growth rates are taken into account. How low? I have no idea. In a bad market, I suppose maybe even lower than the April lows. When will it see the old highs? Alot quicker than companies with slow growth rates and little or no earnings. The time to buy your roses is coming... but don't buy the cheap ones, they don't show the glory of the quality varieties. Btw... rosacea is chronic. Left untreated, it eventually can leave one's face permanently bright red... probably the same as anyone who thinks that amcc is going to a growth rate of 5% anytime soon. TA

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