Hey Slider... I have to disagree about your comparisn to 1998
you repeatedly talk about how good 1998 fundamentals were etc, etc,...
actually oil was below $20 a barrel and dropped to $10 a barrel due to collapse of pacific rim economies.. do you really think we will see an worldwide economic crises and $10 oil in the near future... ? .... don't answer that..LOL...
I know you think we are heading for a global apocalyptic economic meltdown, but I still just don't see it.. although I am starting to come around to the sell the rally's phase of this tech bear market... So we must be near the bottom... Once I begin shorting tech...I will know that the bottom is in...and that should be early next week if everything works according to my current plan....LOL..
the one thing that I gleaned from that extended article you posted about global banking, dollar, etc..?.. I know you won't know which one I'm talking about because you post so many of these...LOL..hehehe ...but the one thing that struck me was that the author mentioned that once foreigners started selling off US equities, that it would create an oversupply of dollars in the global markets which would in turn create a weakening in the dollar.. It seems to me that last weeks weakening of the dollar may indicate that this outflow of foreign money may have begun last week..
Now, on the face, this may sound alarm bells,, but my thinking is that if this is true, that it will force the fed to move to a neutral stance immediately. this is a weird catch 22 that I am having a hard time getting a handle on.... on one hand, if foreigners sell US equities, and create a weakening dollar due to oversupply of greenback, that would seem to indicate the fed would need to loosen to hold up US equity market... On the other hand, loosening causes furthere weakness in the dollar....although this weakness may be offset by capital flowing back toward US equities...
anyway,, its giving me a headache.... How do they keep all these plates spinning...?...>>????
rok |
