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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: Jill who wrote (21608)	12/3/2000 1:34:33 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) of 65232

re: "trying to manage global economy and keep it all in balance is impossible to do perfectly" far far lower risk approach is to allow the shortend of credit market to dictate FedFunds rate Greenspan's greatest asset is the ignorance of the public on any and all matters of economics he earned a genius label primarily by conforming to the 3mo TBill dictated he might earn great disdain by departing from it Greenspan had his greatest success from 1995 to 1996 in that period, he never went against the 3mo TBill we had no disruptions internally or externally he tightened in 1997 against the flow of 3mo TBill his inferred intention was to subdue the US stock market but the result was disruption to Asian currency in an extreme way we got an Asian Meltdown later that year surely Asian Tigers were vulnerable with irresponsible and disastrous Russian debacle in following year I believe those excesses wouldve worked themselves out instead, we got a crisis, founded in overly strong USdollar in 1999, Greenspan grossly elevated money supply all for a problem in his own mind, which never happened broad cross-section of computer experts told him nothing would happen we got an historic bubble in Naz as result this represented gross irresponsibility in my mind but I profited from it, confident of no y2k snafus in 2000, Greenspan tightened far more than 3mo TBill dictated he has tried to undo and reverse his misconception y2k policy he also seems bent on reining in the technology explosion now we will have an earnings recession, possibly severe and an historic popped bubble in Naz as result the best policy is to allow 3mo TBill yield to dicate FedFunds rate not a complicated concept if our shores are assaulted with a dangerous force, THEN THE FEDERAL RESERVE SHOULD RESPOND but history has shown the Fed to create large foreign threats and unnecessary havoc to our own economy give me one good reason for any Soft Landing to be engineered WE HAVE NEVER HAD A SOFT LANDING we are gauranteed to have an earnings recession Q1 might be a dangerous quarter for earnings, warnings, declines / jim

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