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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis

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To: Gersh Avery who wrote (37068)	12/3/2000 4:54:19 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (3) of 42787

Good points but we are approaching some serious support levels here. Heck if I know for sure where we are going but the most likely scenario I am currently mulling over is a couple week dead cat bounce/relief rally then a retest or possible sharper drop to the real bottom. The risk in expecting a rally here is as you say earnings warnings. If one of the gorillas comes out with a warning in this spooked market, we could get an INTC 87 type event. It would take someone big though to cause this as most bad news is now expected so INTC, DELL etc wouldn't do it and it would have to be someone like CSCO, SUNW etc. that is a surprise. Your investment income scenario could cause it. We bounced of the 1.62 projected low this week and it also was a mid tine from a long term fork. A bounce is likely here thus my recent slight bias toward bull. Of course this is not permanent nor certain and it depends on if I believe my daily or my weekly charts as there is a slight discrepency between the two of a hundred points or so. Unfortunately, I just realized that lines I thought had been showing on my charts all this time were in fact not showing since they are disappearing when I shrink my charts down for posting. I don't know why this is but it is disappointing to say the least. I will try and work this out this weekend. I run my screens at home at 1600 by 1200 but post my charts at 1024 by 768 and for some reason half my lines disappear at the lower setting. Right now I have tines at 3100, 2600 and 2250 on the NASDAQ. I still expect to see 2250 eventually and possibly even lower unspeakable levels if we do indeed overshoot and enter a prolonged bear market but I don't expect to see those levels right now. They are ugly and I wouldn't wish them on anyone! They are based on a fork going back to the 1980s and are much much much lower. As I said, I don't expect to see those levels. EDIT - Terry, I haven't kept up with the news this weekend but I think it is about 60/40 Bush side bias. It was a victory for the Supremes to even hear the case in a way. Unfortunately, I have been busy this weekend and haven't been listening to the CSPAN repeats of the hearings nor the talking heads analyzing it. Good Luck, Lee

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