Intel Corporation (INTC) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)

INTC 35.81

+0.2%

Nov 25 3:59 PM EST

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To: techtonicbull who wrote (120316)	12/3/2000 10:55:09 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) of 186894

Hi Tech; I think I'm also saying the bottom is uncertain while I have done good in the past at calling bottoms as I look back I have to admit there was as much luck to that as smarts. In 98 I was a month early but when she re tested and the indexes actually went lower it wasn't by very much, and any one who got in on the Sept low was still in good shape , very few people managed to catch the Low in Oct. I think the lows are not bought so much by investors as the "professional" shorts who have data we never see and they start to close those positions. Or the positions get closed for them, IE many of them "short then sell puts" all the way down, & each time the stocks get put to them all it does is close the short hence they make the put money and whatever spread they had between the strike price and the short. At some point "LIBOR" changes for reasons I don't understand however and it effects the derivative market in such a way that owning the stocks becomes cheaper than owning the futures they can see the volume in last sell off of futures was less than the volume of stocks bought so they start to cover their short positions. They simply have much more sophisticated data of up to date short positions than the general public ever sees. I don't think they so much predict the bottom as being able to see the markets liquidity in real time using the futures data of currency, interest rates, short data and more stuff than I could keep up with these big commercials have teams of people collecting and in-putting a huge stream of information into a program taht spits out what I would term a "liquidity factor" and I'm convinced the major market trades more on "liquidity" than it does earnings and earnings is just some sort of abstract the analcyst skew one way or another as an excuse to justify their bull shit. Very short term ( interday ) I can see tops and bottoms as they form and can do fair flipping on days there is enough volitility, I've had a hard time doing position trades ( like for a week or month or so ). I do know we can count on one more BIG run up before a serious Bear Market sets in, but that is based on the longer term demographics of retirement money flow. When the post war baby boomers going on retirement peaks the money flow will go negative and any company in the market will need to be paying some serious dividends for it's price to survive , the day of Growing by spending what they don't have or can borrow will end & profits will have to get "real" . However with the over all pumping in of retirement money out pacing the outflow for the next 7 to 10 yrs I see at least one more mad run up in the stock market before she comes into reality. Jim

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