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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 200.46-17.2%3:59 PM EST

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To: Goutam who wrote (21324)12/3/2000 11:29:26 AM
From: niceguy767Read Replies (1) of 275872
 
Goutama:

Had a chance to review INTC's Q3 release and noted the following:

1. INTC repurchased 14.3 million INTC shares during Q2 at a cost of $1.0 billion ($70 per share)...Looks like a cool $500 million loss (now $35 per share)...

2. INTC projected a decline in gross margins by 1% from 64% to 63%...Probably translates into a $500 million net income reduction...A 1% GM decline might be an underestimate given the duouble whammy of what seems to be softening PC demand and hardening Athy competition...

3. INTC projected an increase of 7% in R& D or about $150 million...

4. INTC projected investment gains of $950 million in Q4...(Given the erosion in the INTC investment portfolio that has since taken place, they may be hard pressed to find $950 million).

5. INTC is projecting $9.0 billion in Q4 revenue up from $8.7 billion in Q3...

Conclusion:

1. The projected Q4 revenue increase derives primarily from sale of investments, which I believe in Q3 was approximately $750 million...

2. Even in the unlikely event that $9 billion in Q4 revenues is achieved, given the negative incremental earnings effect of items 1 (not really sure if (1) impacts earnings) to (4) above, INTC is unlikely to realize the rather heady (in retrospect) Q3 eps of $0.41...Might even miss bigtime depending on the size of GM erosion in (2) above...
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