VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: RR who wrote (21662)	12/3/2000 11:32:42 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) of 65232

since we talked in Sept, the Euro has risen as we expected from roughly 82 to about 87 now we liked the long Euro futures contract that contract is probably up 250-350% yes, our too strong USdollar has hurt foreign economies Greenspan's too high interest has resulted in too strong US$ now I read of signs that Asian economies are stalling badly Greenspan has begun to reproduce the Asian Meltdown I doubt it will melt down, but a recession in Asia is likely in scattered countries we already have flat growth in Europe yes, close to bottom in US stocks, esp Naz any post-election bounce will likely bring about more retests any Fed move to neutal bounce will likely be followed by retests also more warnings are coming, but also more assurances I expect forward guidance in the next 3-5 weeks to be very cautious many more downwaves coming from reduced expectations but downwaves might only retouch old lows I see Q1 as dangerous as hell upcoming exports to foreign customers will be waning our currency is strong, their economies are weakening it is a nobrainer also, our economy is not done slowing the GDP of 5.5% in Q2 was followed by 2.4% in Q3 that is MUCH MUCH greater an effect from Fed hitting the brakes, than desired Greenspan is probably surprised we slowed that markedly I want to participate in the post-election bounce not getting greedy here Gore Team is getting absolutely nowhere in Tallhassy but the Nassau Absentee case scares me / jim

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