JRI,
More on ORCL:
Message 14934685
On my short list, the most overvalued are:
RIMM P/E 932; P/S 44
CIEN P/E 380; P/S 32
EXTR P/E 325; P/S 20
BRCD P/E 302; P/S 62
MCDT P/E 310; P/S 30
All have less than 5% of shares held short except BRCD (8.1%), and total shares held short amount to less than one day's trading volume in all cases, making the possibility of a short squeeze contributing significantly to upside momentum unlikely. Furthermore, the fact that investor sentiment is at a bullish extreme in these stocks (as measured by the short shares held) is unwarranted and inappropriate in the face of clearly deteriorating technicals, and is a bearish indicator, suggesting there is a lot of pain and fear selling ahead for the mass of those long these stocks. This will most likely contribute significantly to downside in each of these, as reality hits those holding long positions, and they slowly but surely throw in the towel.
RIMM has now failed a head and shoulders formation, with lower support at 50, then 41-42, and 25-26.
CIEN I have posted on already.
EXTR shows a failed double-top, support at 47, then 40, then nothing really until 27.
BRCD shows a failed triple-top/H&S, with a broken long term trendline. Support at 140, then 95, then 80.
MCDT failed a double top. Short-term support at 40.
As for the technicals,
RIMM is at upper resistance, with next resistance at 80. Technical buy signals showing on the daily chart from oversold levels, but these have changed to across the board sell signals on the intraday. This looks like a good entry short for RIMM, unless it gaps up on Monday; in that case, I would look to short as it tests 80, if it begins to fail there.
askresearch.com
askresearch.com
CIEN shows buy signals at the moment, after failing support at 90. Friday's candle suggests downside reversal here. The intraday chart also shows buy signals; CIEN failed support at the 200 min MA, but the last intraday candle suggests an upside reversal short-term.
askresearch.com
askresearch.com
EXTR also shows short-term buy signals from oversold levels on both the daily and intraday charts. EXTR is still ahead of the 10 day ema on the downside, so this would suggest more correction to the upside. Short term resistance is at the 200 minute MA on the intraday (at 60), which if successfully tested, would make a test at 63 likely. It is at that point that I would look for a short entry.
askresearch.com
askresearch.com
BRCD is giving mixed signals on the daily chart, so I would call it neutral at this point. Overhead resistance is at 180, and since the intraday chart shows a bullish candle sitting on support at the 200 minute MA, with technical buy signals, a test at 180 is likely IMHO, and would represent the best entry point for a short if and when there is evidence of technical and chart weakening.
askresearch.com
askresearch.com
MCDT is testing resistance at 60, in a region between the 10 and 20 day ema which has previously proven effective overhead resistance. Friday's candle on the daily chart looks hesitant, but MCDT shows short-term buy signals, so an entry close to 64 would be ideal. If it trades up this high, I would short on the first sign of technical weakening:
askresearch.com
askresearch.com
If I get a chance, I'll check the options chains for options-related support/resistance, and put/call ratios. I'd also like to check the analyst upgrade/downgrade history to get a feel for bullish/bearish analyst sentiment, and also to get a sense of analyst downgrade potential, and history and trends in upgrades and downgrades relative to stock price movements in the past. But based on the above, I'd say RIMM is the best of the bunch at the moment, followed by CIEN. EXTR, BRCD, and MCDT should be closely watched, and will probably all provide better short entries Monday or Tuesday.
All JMVHO, of course...............
Walkingshadow |
