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Technology Stocks : Applied Micro Circuits Corp (AMCC)
AMCC 8.4500.0%Feb 3 4:00 PM EST
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To: who cares? who wrote (1028)12/3/2000 4:09:36 PM
From: Raymond Duray  Read Replies (1) of 1805
 
Hi CMB,

You seem to be an optimist at this juncture. You commend Trader Dave for a perceptive and prescient call that the market would head down and now you castigate me for doing the same. Interesting. I guess you may be looking farther out and seeing the recovery sooner than I am. My view is that the market is, as has been said repeatedly, a crude instrument that doesn't distinguish well between an AMCC S19201 and a VTSS VSC7182. And who can blame them for not understanding the esoterica involved?

Yet, there may be some crucial concerns there for the investor to consider. Will the future PSTN remain ascendant and based on Sonet redundancy, or will we have a more data centric meshed architecture with multiple and disparate service providers with multiple public and private peering points. And if the former, what rate of growth can we expect from ILECs and established LD carriers in the face of apparently tremendous doubt in the financing community and within the treasury personnel within these service provider organizations? If the latter, at what rate can we expect GbE to replace the expensive and seemingly unnecessary maintenance of Sonet installations in the metro and access markets and at what rate can we expect the WDM/IP methodology to completely bury Sonet in the long haul market?

If you've got answers to either of these questions, I'm all ears.

My suspicion is that Sonet is simply not a growth sector that will drive the AMCC story. They are going to have to evolve away from that ring architecture. I'd be interested in your views.

Thanks, Ray
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