Curiouser and curiouser...
Concerning the rising tide of soothing vocabulary (e. g. disaster, double whamo, slowdown, and the other reminders of the impending Armageddon) on this thread, I hereby provide the text of a recent post on the Yahoo/Klic thread [slightly abridged to remove the Klic spam]:
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We now have the mirror image of 6 months ago: in April-May everyone was giddy about the prospect of another 3+ years left in the upside of the cycle, of how worldwide demand was surging, of how the constrained capacity resulting from the SEA crisis will sustain the sector, etc, ad nauseum. But even with all this extremely positive spin, the sector was going down.
Now we have the sector down by 60%, many stocks off 80% from their highs, and everyone talking about (what amounts to) recession. In short, we're smack in the middle of extremely negative spin. And, just like the opposite case in April-May, almost everyone can tell us why this negative outlook is 'true'. And just like those who spoke of selling out in March or April were considered supremely foolish, the same moniker will be applied to those who say, 'Now is the time to buy'.
And that is what I'll say: NOW is the time to buy.
messages.yahoo.com
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Most of the SI SEM related threads were completely wrong in predicting the performance of the sector in summer and fall of 2000. We were all exposed to countless articles and learned discussions why the dogma (summarized in the 1st paragraph of the Yahoo post) would become manifest. We’re now starting our exposure to the ‘recession in the equipment sector - if not much, much worse’ articles with the highly-reasonable-sounding supporting evidence provided by the usual suspects.
Is there any reason to believe that predictions for calamity now will be any more accurate than the (equally compelling) prognostications for Shangri-La in April?
No.
BTW, that post on the Yahoo Klic thread was made in partial response to positive comments (Briefing.com) and an upgrade (Janney) for Klic made at the end of last week. And since this is as much a perception about the sector as an individual stock therein, let me repeat that: there were POSITIVE COMMENTS AND AN UPGRADE MADE FOR AN SEM STOCK AT THE END OF LAST WEEK.
But what the hell do analysts know, right? Are you listening Jon Joseph?
Isn't it ironic that when the criteria for the title of this thread have finally been satisfied, the participants, in effect, change the threshold. But that is the paradox: investors are constitutionally loathe to recognize 'blood': they'd rather view it as a 'new world order' than what the author of this board clearly intended investors to discern - an astonishing buying opportunity. |
