Hallo Jay, feeling a little bit lonely? After the mails three weeks ago I got the impression that this Softbank thread is like a meeting of the Alcoholics Anonymous: they all speak about the same stuff, but they are abstinent.
Malcolm is out, You are out and I have (since Spring) just 10 Frankfurt Shares left as reference. The same days when the story that a Mr. Son will be the richest man of the world was launched by a PR-agency I sold a larger amount of shares for my mother-in-law ... because somewhere in my belly I found this story NOT serious (I am not a professional!). For her I made a nice profit. For myself - typically riskier male behavior - I staid a bit to long and I got out with a little loss. But not realized profits are the hardest losses ... my MO calls reconciled me.
Now to the new thread about the Final Terminating Financial Collapse you proposed us.
I follow it regularly but did not wanted to jump into this discussion. I think we are in a period of Psycho-Market with Shizos running around, crying, making big theories about the Final Collapse ... and still hoping greedily to make an extra buck with the next technical turn of a +2.374%. But the Psycho-Delirium already started late last year when nobody could explain professionally clean why the shares of a XdotYcom Company should rise to 50$, than to 75, 100, 150, yeahh lets go 200. Many analysts, Abbys and Cos tried to explain, that all that makes sense. But in fact they were preaching the rules of the broken communist regimes in Moscow and their satellites: you comrades, you are living in a great time: You and only You are elected to create the paradise on this world. Of course not now. Now you will be hungry, you will have to work very hard, you will never get a car or a nice house because we need the industrial capacities for greater things: the building of the paradise ... your Children, or the Children of them will
live in.
For me it was much more difficult to understand what happened during the 9 - 12 month before the first heavier correction this spring. I runned with the stampede, but sold always much to early (then not now).
What happens now I consider still as a normal correction which hurts of course many "investors" but I really do not believe that the Worldwide Financial Collapse is ante porta. Why? To many are speaking about it. You certainly read Soros book "Science and the open Society - The Future of Poppers Philosophy" - he predicts the Collapse as well for the near future. Certainly I will not exclude a collapse. It will come one day. And it could well be catastrophic ... what is my main reason it will not be soon in one or two months or in 6 months. Most catastrophs just plunge on us out of a blue sky. For example an unexpected combination of political adventures (China gets Taiwan unfriendly and in the same period something happens to the oil in the middle east region as example ... and there are two US-Presidents) and already slowed down economies. Than a global fundamental crash would probably be inevitable.
But for the next some years I think that the most important
economies will get extra speed due to the new technologies (bio, communication and nano, etc.). The so-called "old economy" has wakened up and big companies like GE, MO, the Nestles and Gambles, Vivendis, but also and especially the mid- and small-cap Co's are changing rapidly and they are making healthy profits. Not a la Fantasialand like Amazon@oneday.com. But this year. Next Year and certainly some other years. That the US-market is cooling down some degrees is probably a must. The US has finally not the same base like China. And some exporting US-companies will have reduced profits due only to the high $:€. The Swiss Bankers were not amused with their US operations during the time when the $ was at a low of 1.40 to the Swiss Fr. Now its the other way around and thats the normal breathing of markets.
But what I am doing? First I will fly to Phuket in 8 h and will stay there for 10 days.
I am retired since one year and separated my money during the last 30 years always in two pockets: longterm investments with very conventional pension plans, some shares of good companies I know well (CreditSuisse, Nestle, Roche, Amgen since 87, Novartis). And for fun, maybe adventure, a bigger car or something else I have the short term pocket. My wife tells me, that I am a gambler with this short term pocket. Maybe. But for now my exposure is almost at 0. The ten Softbank RDAs, the MO calls and some other futures which are approaching the 0 and which I wrote already off. There will be no greater car this year. But my losses are small. And I am waiting - if needed 6 months - till the markets offers more chances ... to make some money and not just to get negative stress.
What we all need is positive stress or distress.
So long. Art. |
