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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 168.26+1.5%Dec 10 3:59 PM EST

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (9077)12/3/2000 11:05:45 PM
From: Gottfried  Read Replies (1) of 10921
 
Zeev, >I was one of those seeing a BTB at 1.40 plus, saying, it just cannot better, sell<

I just remember you getting flak.<g> Last time AMAT bottomed within a month or so of the SEMI orders bottom. I can't believe we have seen either an orders or btb bottom.But this time may be different. The last [aborted] cycle was very abrupt - thus not much time lag between orders and price bottoms.

We had discussions on the AMAT thread and consensus was that stock COULD go to the high twenties. Some analyst later mentioned low thirties. Close enough. But when?
I observed that during the last two bottoms the AMAT monthly low stayed about the same for 2-3 months. [the red line] Plenty of time to get in. AMAT backlog never dropped much below $1B, even in '98.

AMAT vs SEMI orders
geocities.com
AMAT vs SEMI btb
geocities.com

AMAT backlog, price and SEMI 'backlog'
geocities.com

Or see ALL charts Message 14872591

If anyone wants the charts e-mailed, speak up.

Gottfried
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