Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 267.87

-0.6%

Dec 5 9:30 AM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (40369)	12/3/2000 11:39:31 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (2) of 70976

G, BB has it right, imo. I said in a post here a few days ago, we have stumbled into summer 1998 again. Rates are hitting new lows, predicting an abrupt slowdown, and lower fed rates. It hasn't been long enough since 1998 for the endangered economies to be anything other than fragile. The fed will ease.The inverted curve will no longer be inverted. Buying stocks anywhere in here will be very wise within 12 months, even if there is more pain in the next couple of months. The fed's own model says we are about 16% overvalued right now, but that is the best since late 1998. Furthermore, with 10 year rates falling, we will be at fair value with another .2 point long bond drop. The fed will act in 6 steps, and they may have started last week already: 1. pump supply but keep tight bias for the press; 2. AG makes a speech wherein he says inflation fears have clearly ebbed and the economy will underperform, but the fed is vigilant against inflation. 3. The fed goes to a neutral bias 4. the fed pumps supply harder but warns they are vigilant against inflation and expresses no concern about the market and maybe. 5. the fed goes to a easing bias. 6. The fed eases.

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