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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 352.69

+1.8%

Feb 2 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (196)	12/4/2000 10:11:18 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) of 95834

GREAT work Donald! Have you posted the PSR and PBR numbers for the bottoms in 1996 and 1998? From memory, the worst back then got to about 2 yrs of burn rate below book value. It SEEMs that some like SFAM are getting pretty close to that now. The problem with buying the losers is they probably won't recover as well as the winners that are beaten up. The real trick is finding the losers that use the downturn to consolidate and turn into winners like LRCX did on the '98 downturn. I sort of like the idea of trying to have a wide spread and pick one or two winners and two "turn-a-round" stories. Get one of the turn-a-rounds right and you don't care that the other stays in the toilet. At the bottom of '98 I bought LRCX and UTEK and the first made me a ton and the 2nd is actually up about 30% which isn't too bad, but it is highly valued given your recent numbers. My winner, I am just happy to hold on to AMAT bought in 1996 @ $6. stockmaster.com As to bottom predicting. I think this will happen when analysts start to project when the upturn will come. This means they stop discounting for a lifetime of bad news and actually increase earnings in their estimates.

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