RE: This is , was and will allways be a "Cyclical Sector" - it is not a longterm buy & hold growth stock sector.
..bald eagle; right you are with XOM on a 20 year basis; but 20 years certainly requires the patience of Jobe.
There are exceptions to every rule...
Small Cap E&P's are often under that broad market radar screen and look to be the play on NG here against the broad market weakness grain; just don't stay at the party too long; or get hypnotized that Gas Prices at these levels are here to stay.
I honestly hope we can move against the grain - it's not impossible that we can't; it just has not happened here into incredible, if not historically positive underlying fundamentals so far.
I'll be happy with a nice rally & profit on just a partial Oilpatch positon; this is definitely Pig & not Hog territory.
I merely am trying to remain patient & disciplined; as nothing in the OSX 100-120 trading range, is new, or enticing for me personally; because the risk is now much higher than it has been in the prior "been here & done that" Trading range of OSX 100-130ish and the potential reward & odds of a breakout rally to new highs is not attractive, or probable enough.
I prefer to stay short the Tech stocks, BTK index, long golds & keep a small upside exposure via some calls here in Oil's. I'm a net Oilpatch seller - everything I've got left on a rally taking us thru OSX 120-125; where I'll move up trailing stops - riding any sustained break up thru that level; but triggering a profit taking exit on the first retrace below my trailing stops.
Cisco down 5% today on positive guidance/good news etc... Tech selling is still steady , valuations are still excessive. The US Dollar must and will be "walked down" by Greenspan, the Fed must go to neutral bias & may even do a surprise rate cut in Dec; if the Naz breaks into 2200-2400 range and the market/sentiment remain weak.
Greenspan is in an inflation trap as well as a dollar trap here.... he can't win; he can only choose the lessor of evils and the least painfull path ahead.
Cut rates; add liquidity into a $35 Oil & $7 Nat Gas environment; let the bubbleonians think "all is clear" & spend themselves silly during Xmas & pop the NAZ thru about 3000-3300 one last time... then reality hits in early 2001 imo.
Great opps for nimble traders; personally - the risk offsets the attractiveness of the potential rewards here; so I prefer to stay very partially exposed; over-weighted heavilly to Gold, remaining short for now and patient...
I don't think we'll know enough about the US Dollar, about Oil Prices, about the "Soft Landing", about Fed Cuts etc - untill Feb-March; perhaps then the "answers" to the present unknowns will tip the risk vs reward meter back to attractive levels...and just in time for what has been for the last 4 years; a nice March to May Oilpatch rally !
Good Luck all... looks like some opps for some Short term NG trades - especially some small cap moves; but don't get hypnotized...also; hard to take advantage of this trading opp - if you're allready max margined at OSX 120, or fully invested here... cash is both offensive & defensive - odds are we'll see more Oilpatch buying/trading opps... this won't be the last one.
I remain;
Sitting (Golden) Bull |
