Analysizing the IDC report in full.
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(a) If IDC is right, and 56% of all new shipments in 2001 will be windows2000 server; what is the impact to MSFT revenues and earnings?
(b) If 71% of all windows shipment in 2001 is Windows2000, what is the impact that some of you see to MSFT revenues and earnings?
Like to see some counter analysis. I want to check if I am seeing things through "rosy glasses" or realistic or pessimistic, even.
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In the fourth quarter, Microsoft will ship 1.7 million more copies of Windows 2000 than of Windows NT, IDC estimates.
Windows 2000, released in February, could account for almost 71 percent of total shipments of Windows for business computers and servers for 2001.
Adoption of Windows 2000 for workstations, or business PCs connected to a network, is going faster than the version of the software designed for servers, IDC said. Businesses often take a while to replace the more expensive and complicated servers and their software.
Analysts and investors are looking for signs of faster acceptance of the pricier Windows 2000 Server version,
which costs $1,199 in retail stores, compared with $319 for the workstation version.
IDC expects a jump in Windows 2000 Server shipments in December, the final month of the company's fiscal second quarter. IDC expects Windows 2000 Server will account for about 35 percent of all shipments of Windows for server computers in December, compared with 16 percent for all of 2000. In 2001, it will account for 56 percent of new shipments.
Al Gillen, research manager for systems software at IDC, said more companies will switch to Windows 2000 over the next 12 to 18 months, even though the product was released more than nine months ago. |
