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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: stsimon who wrote (80781)12/5/2000 2:56:24 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack  Read Replies (2) of 95453
 
stsimon;

We had a lot of momenteum players here; more than most people thought. The effect of their exit is allways underestimated; as well as where their exit will take us.

And yes; there is a lot of fear of getting burned - ala 97-98.

There will be lots of volatility; and you allmost have to "trade the traders" - and not the fundamentals as we've obviously disconnected from fundamentals if alltime high NG prices, $30-35 Oil and record earnings = a 25% pullback...

I think we just got a euphoria - all is well; Greenspan is Santa - trading opp here; along with the Election debacle relief.

But; imho reality will soon return during what I anticipate will be a disappointing Xmas Retail season and further misses, blow ups and lowered guidance from Tech come Q4 reporting...

Maybe we'll get a final crescendo blow off in the Market off of poor Xmas & Q4 reporting in Jan & Feb; setting up a final great buying opp in the Oils for another annual March to May rally - maybe this time thru OSX 150 to 165ish ?

It will all be about the soft landing in the first half of 2001. We'll all have to read the economic stat tea leaves to determine if we're going to just have a soft-landing bump & then resume with a multi-year Oilpatch expansion cycle, or not...
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