My thoughts ...
Price wars may move some additional boxes. But if software prices remain constant, consumers seeking bargains may substitute lower cost (and lower margin) applications over higher priced (and more profitable) full featured packages. This makes the predictions difficult. The last PC manufacturers price competition was beneficial for Microsoft, but I don't see any guarantees this will repeat.
The question of upgrading to Win2000: I've a recently minted PC, and I am motivated to upgrade just to remain current, but I also don't wish to face the expense and effort needlessly. So far, I haven't seen anything Win2000 offers me beyond increased reliability. My Win98 system is currently running wonderfully: It's been months since I've seen the BSOD or had a program terminate pre-maturely. So I ask myself, If I don't want to upgrade, why would anyone else?
Given that Win2000 is business oriented, and businesses can roll out upgrades in massive tidal waves, and Microsoft gets a booster-shot of revenue, I view the upgrade picture as rosy, but not tremendously stellar. However, each and every additional Win2000 system adds to the installed base, expands the market for Win2000 packages, and increases the pressure on users of older systems to get on the Win2000 wagon. This both increases Microsoft market penetration and raises barriers to competitors, making the success of alternative systems even more remote. This process tends to snowball.
Windows, from version 1 was a more cost effective solution than Apple. From version 3.0, Windows' utility gap narrowed too. I see no reason for this trend to discontinue.
Allan Greenspam agrees that in some respects Wall Street is influencing Main Street. We've recognized this for some time. Now it's officially acknowledged. Today's market reaction confirms the benefits of the Fed's new recognition of this connection.
That's what I think.
Cheers, PW. |
