My AUDC buy-in can turn out 1 of 2 ways:
It can either turn out like another chip company,
SIMG, I bought the crap out of also at 12, that
crashed and burned to 6:
Or it can turn out like another company I bought
yesterday and cleaned up on today: Tollgrade
Communications. Like NMSS and AUDC, Tollgrade
got punished when Turnstone Systems pre-announced
earnings disappointment as they both make testing
systems for telecomm companies. However, they
don't really have the same customers, or the
same emphasis with the customers they share.
I think/hope that's the situation with AUDC & NMSS
here. NMSS over the years has occasionally turned
in some erratic numbers, if I remember correctly.
AUDC seems much more sure footed and seems to
deliver on what they promise...so they get a much
higher grade regarding execution in my book. Made
some good money on AUDC earlier this year :-) and
hope to do so again here.
Anyway here's a post I liked I found on the
Yahoo thread...kinda justification after the fact!
>>PLEASE READ THIS
by: ajiwani (25/M/Atlanta, GA) 12/5/00 7:04 pm
Msg: 990 of 991
OK. So AUDC went down in sympathy with NMSS
One thing you need to understand is it is two different
companies with different product line and very different
style of doing business.
Why did CSCO go up over 10%, the day COMS warned? Aren't
they the competitors. The reason is CSCO hasn't warned, and
it has a much better management than COMS.
LU has warned four times this year and the stock has sucked.
ADCT went down in sympathy for a while, but has shot back
up lately. Again, they are in the same business but ADCT
has a much better management than LUcent.
AUDC has over $100 million dollars on balance sheet and is
making money. The company has been beating the sales and
revenue numbers since it went public. The management was
smart enough to have a second offering and raise $57
million for future use. I won't be surprised here if they
announce a stock buy back.
Anyways, I don't know how far down this stock can slide
before it bounces. However, I am betting my retirement
money on this puppy. I already sold my CHKP for a loss
before it shot up like a rocket. So am I saying that this
stock will be the next CHKP?
Let me ask you - why not? - Not just because it is a
Israeli company you moron. Let's talk numbers. AUDC
estimates Voice over IP market to be $65 billion
by 2006. It is estimated at $4 billion by 2002. So the
money is there.
Having 40% share of VoIP market in 1999 makes it a leader
by far. And clients like CSCO, LU, NT give it a jump start.
And yes, the wall street idiots didn't know a jack about
firewalls and how essential it will be for every business
until CHKP started producing huge revenues.
So, you have a choice. Sell this stock tomorrow, fill in
your margin calls and think of this as a nightmare. Or just
sit on it for few years and watch it make new all time highs."<<
Good luck.
Peter. |
