Well, I look at Turkey only from the psychological POV. After all, the Russian debacle was a big deal, and seemed a big deal, until someone published something about the entire Russian GNP was only equal to IBM, so what was the BFD?? <<true or false, the world is more linked than ever before. Why should =one company=, Gateway, merely reduce profit outlook, and give the entire market a "haircut"?? It is the "further picture" really. I think we are on the same wavelength insofar as poster children; whether useful or misleading, only in five years can we tell.
I have been a programmer since the early 80's, and I too, early on, shared the outlook that "dark matter" programs, on 01/01/2000, would create havoc as the calendar turned. I wasn't especially concerned about topline, management-financed programs, it was the "eager amateurs" I reference when I say "dark matter". These are the guys with one-off spreadsheets, modified, undocumented programs that only -they- understand, that create the greatest risk.
Then I read a remark by a professor of computing at the Univ. of London. He said, "Computers and programs fail all the time. Year 2000 will be no different. You just fix it, and move on." Simplistic, but in brief, he had the right idea. Any -real- critical programs, such as Boeing's in aircraft, had been under scrutiny since 1994. If Greenspan & co had just investigated this problem from the positive point of view, they would not have been worried about a liquidity crisis.
The typical error on webpages last January was "January 2, 19910" !!B^0... |
