A ptnewell post from THE FOOL...
At first reading of SemiFool's clever deduction that RDRAM production was tanking, I was
taken aback. After all, the three companies actually producing RDRAM in volume are all
reporting a rapid ramp up. For example, Samsung produced 2.75 million units (evidently 128
Mbit equivalents) in October, 2.9 million in November, is currently producing 4 million in
December, and has plans for 18 million in December (1). This is just what one would naively
expect with the release of the Pentium 4. However it turns out (based on the Jack
Robertson article obliquely referred to by SemiFool) that the few hundred thousand units
produced by Infineon in the Spring have backed up inventories, causing a price drop in
December. Oddly, RDRAM prices have been dropping steadily all year long, as production
yields rise. Also the chart of RDRAM prices for the year (2) shows nothing dramatic
happening recently, or for that matter in June, when Intel confirmed plans for a SDRAM
version of the Pentium 4. (SemiFool incorrectly places that confirmation as quite recent in
his time line).
But I write not to quibble with SemiFool, but to embrace his wonderfully malleable logic. I
like it so much, I've decided to apply it to the Athlon. (Note: using SemiFool's rules, I can
ignore any actual production and price data.) Herewith is proof of the demise of the Athlon,
using Semi's inspired schemata:
1. AMD announces it is "exploring" the Sledgehammer.
2. Price of the Athlon drops. AMD offers price cuts for the Athlon.
3. AMD releases the Thunderbird, using the Athlon only.
4. But the price of the Athlon continues to drop.
5. "Ebnews 3/4 dram makers surveyed story". Jack Robertson interviewed three DRAM
makers which have never made RDRAM (except tiny amounts in February-March). Micron
does not even have a clean qualification to make RDRAM. So what would be the equivalent
survey for the Athlon? What else? I contacted my brother, Donald, who happens to work
for Intel. He reports Intel is experiencing absolutely no demand for Athlons. In fact, (just like
Hyundai and Micron with RDRAM), no one has even asked Intel about Athlons. So there
we have it. 1/1 CPU makers surveyed see absolutely no demand for Athlons. That is an
even higher percentage than Jack got. (He made the mistake of asking Samsung, which
reported strong demand).
6. Gateway and MicronPc report a backup in inventory.
7. AMD confirms it will introduce a Sledgehammer someday, but pushes that date back (like
Intel with the Brookdale/PC133 P4, originally scheduled for spring, now delayed till late '01).
8. AMD gives away an Athlon with every purchase of an AMD computer.
Is the Athlon really wanted? Why does the price of a 1 GHz Athlon keep falling unless
demand is tanking?
Heartfelt thanks, SemiFool. I was blind, but now can see…
(1) Translated from Chinese by oweowepd:
swiftsolution.com
(2) This is a pro-DDR site. He has been keeping meticulous track of RDRAM prices all
year though:
members.home.com
click on "RDRAM" under "Charts". |
