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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: Shack who wrote (44199)	12/5/2000 10:05:40 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) of 436258

i agree...the parallels end right there (pattern and rate talk). however, a recession is not a certainty...we are just assuming that it is very likely, which it indeed is. let's not underestimate bubble boy and his printing press though. re. Nikkei, i assume you're talking about the early October rally...that's what i thought too that we might be at that point. however, the are arguments against this interpretation. the NAZ had a much deeper initial decline (percentage wise), it also had a bigger blow-off. therefore, stage 2 of the BK should be deeper too, also to satisfy the breaking of the shelf and ideally a revisit of the '98 low, or at least the '98 high. otoh, the triangle pattern preceding the final(for '90) washout in the Nikkei looks remarkably like that of the NAZ around the 3K level... guess the next few days will tell where it actually is in relation to the Nikkei...time-wise about the same time has elapsed...and today's rally was as impressive as that of the Nikkei off said low. all things considered you're probably right...

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