Applied Micro Circuits Corp (AMCC) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Micro Circuits Corp (AMCC)

AMCC 8.450

0.0%

Feb 3 4:00 PM EST

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To: Raymond Duray who wrote (1038)	12/5/2000 10:43:13 PM
From: techanalyst1	Read Replies (1) of 1805

Well Ray... I told you that oil looked like it was losing momentum and the oil stocks were rolling over. They aren't too bad at forcasting future trends.... and there was a reason that FNM was so strong... it's a proxy on the future of trend of interest rates saying that they wouldn't be rising any more. While housing is slowing, it's still doing ok. It's hard to have a real recession while people feel well enough to buy real estate. Some trivia for you: The market bottomed in 94 this very week even though interest rates were further raised one more time the following Feb. In 1987, Naz did not hit bottom with the crash. The final bottom was 13 years ago, yesterday. There were some high growth techs that indeed defied the market and rose quite nicely even in the face of the recession of the early 90's (volatile, yes and there were some big dips down that I'm sure upset some people at the time)... Dell, Msft and especially Cisco come to mind. I'd love to have bought them even at their highs and held on through the downturns for a decade. Besides that. This weekend there wasn't one single article I could find that had any kind of bullish undertones to it. They ranged from "stay away from tech, it's going down another 50%" to "the bear market will remain until 2005 or longer" to something like the dow going to 4000 or some such thing to bragging about shorting... short term contrarian. I don't know if we have finally hit THE bottom, or how fast we'll go back up, whether we're in a trading range or whether we get a recession or not. I do think that the fed is watching and will act if they feel we are coming down harder than we need to.... whatever that is. Lots of damage has been done to the market. Lots of people have lost money in this market because they looked only at charts and couldn't tell you a thing about what they did or what fundamentals they had (or didn't have). Lots of companies shouldn't have been public and lots of analysts were just as dumb as the people who piled money into them. Personally, I hope they're gone forever. Good riddance. "Congrats to all the longs, a nice jackpot day". I'm not really interested in any jackpot days... more like jackpot years and amcc has a long way to go. TA

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