The time to short this was when the analysts decided that it was overvalued based on forecasts for slower % growth
The time to short was probably when NTAP was around 150 and someone posted an article here that said the market opportunity for storage is "unlimited."
Likewise, the time to go long was last week, when the media were chanting the "get ready for more declines" mantra, and this thread was dominated by daytrader types.
As for me, I live in the Valley, where everyone owns tech stocks -- I am lucky enough to be able to do sentiment research by plopping myself down at a cafe and listening. The other good sentiment indicator is the "Investing" aisle at Barnes & Noble in Santa Clara. Once it starts getting too full of people crawling over each other to get to the wise books about making millions daytrading, well, time to get nervous. :-)
Obvious disclaimer: picking out market tops and bottoms based on lay sentiment is a lot of fun, and I use it for amusement at the margins of my portfolio (a few extra shares bought, a few shares dumped), but I do not recommend it as a serious investment strategy, as I don't think it can demonstrate "nonzero efficacy." |
