Hello Joel,
Back again for an update on PMTC. I last posted back in April, and (fortunately for me) my "forecast" on PMTC wasn't far removed from the actual results (thusfar). See: Message 13381675
I'd like to point out to current shareholders that although PMTC appears to be rounding the corner and heading for home in its recovery efforts, the reality is that the company still lags significantly behind the numbers it posted almost 3 years ago. And, with industry analysts "predicting" a capital spending slowdown in calendar year 2001, growth prospects for PMTC in the coming year may be somewhat muted.
However, that being said, PMTC may be the beneficiary of some very favorable quarter-over-quarter comparisons starting with the December (beginning of Fiscal 2001 for PMTC) quarter.
In Q1 of FY2000, PMTC showed 4 cents in earnings. Analysts are expecting them to report 5 cents later this month, but don't be surprised if they actually report 6 or even 7 cents. A positive Q1 earnings surprise is within the realm of possibility.
In FY2000, PMTC reported 0, 3 and 3 cents for Q2, Q3 and Q4 respectively. FY2000 ended with a total EPS of 10 cents. Analysts are currently anticipating an EPS of 6, 8 and 11 cents for Q2, Q3 and Q4 of FY2001 respectively, or a total of 30 cents per share for all of FY2001.
As you can see, the comparisons are very favorable for PMTC. In the event of an economic slowdown that might affect PMTC's top line revenues growth, there would appear to be plenty of room for a lowering of estimates without negatively impacting the very favorable year-over-year, quarter-over-quarter comparisons.
With that in mind, and the stock still in the low teens, risk tolerant investors might want to add some shares to their PMTC holdings to take advantage of any possible spikes in share price over the coming year, and then cash in on the short term gains when appropriate to do so.
I would caution that PMTC is still a stock fraught with considerable risk, but the favorable comparisons are very difficult to ignore. I might guess that PMTC could go as high as 20 or so, but a more realistic estimate might place them around 17, give or take. After FY2001 is completed, comparisons become more difficult, and investors would want to be divested of the shares that were purchased strictly on speculation of favorable comparisons.
Best wishes to you...
KJC |
