mact, if I may be so bold, I still think the build out of this high tech broad band network is the pivital component, with out which, this current engine of technological innovation and growth goes no where.
The successful build out, of this high tech communications infrastructure, is the key frame work, and vehicle, that will stimulate and enable and the next level of economic growth through out the world.
The exchanging of information, with less and less bottle necks, will make the internet experience, far less frustrating. Down loads will be fast, interactive multi media files will be seamless by comparison. Yesterday Greenspan once more, reiterated how the recent technological build out has benefited coporate productivity.
Mark at Avanex, said it will be ten years before we see the optical core reach all the way to the edge, as in Dr. Simon Cao's vision. But based on what one reads, even by bring the optical core into the metro and out to the providers in the area, this will bring improvement to the internet experience.
Of course at this stage, one would imagine the big organizations will benefit more from the increase in bandwidth capacity, as they are more likely to be connected more directly to the optical core.
The upgrade to the optical core, has got to help the web hosting co.s, that are becoming key hubs, of information out sourcing services, to corporations around the globe.
The way I see it, Greenspan, Bush and Gore all understand what is at stake here. The high tech., U.S. corp.s, are in a leader ship position in this build out. We can either keep on pushing the envelope, or drop the ball here.
I think Greenspan is doing his best to keep the build out going forward. The overvaluation thing had to be brought into check, because of all the inflationary implications.
But yesterday it was time to stop choking the fire, before there wasn't enough energy to get it going again.
The latest crop, of new investors has gotten another lesson from the Wall ST. University of hard knocks. Those hard lessons should serve to temper the markets tendancy towards irrational exuberance going forward.
However there will always be highly valued stocks in the key broadband networking sector, because the size of the global build out, means that some co.s will get a tremendous amount of business.
So that is the challenge, to find the co.s that will get the lion's share of the business, that will come from creating this high tech. broad band infrastructure.
This is not a dot com experiment. These broad band networking equipment co.s, have earnings. Very fast growing earnings. Going forward investors will look to see how well these co.s are growing their earnings.
These co.'s need are support, and the blessings of Uncle Sam. Yesterday we got positive indications from Greenspan that the choke hold on the life support for this sector, would be released. We also got more reason to believe that the political lid, hampering the progress of the presidential transition process, may be coming to an end.
As crazy as this sounds, I think the whole world is beginning to get up to speed with, and behind the importance of this high tech build out.
We as investors, are all lucky, to be able to particapate at the ground floor level, of this next generation build out.
I think the way to play it, is both short and long term. Invest for the long term, so you are always vested, to catch, the unexpected up moves. When conditions warrant, and you have the time and skill, trade the near term moves, with sepperate funds.
You have to be proactive in these markets. In the fall I traded in and out of Avanex twice at much higher levels. In one of those trades, I lost alot of previous profits, as I tried to ride out a decline, because of my conviction about the company. Finally I bailed, when I could see the stock was going to continue to brake price supports. This was where my little bit of trading skill, helped me to recognize an ongoing downtrend.
I bought for the long term twice, not too far above this level on the way down, and very near the bottom, on the way up. In this case I was able to marry the disipline of long term analysis, which gave me fundamental conviction and trading timing, which helped me recognize entry points.
Bottom line, I think this high tech 21 century infrastructure build out thing, is a very significant and long term trend, I am just trying to play it as best I can, and making it up as I go along, based on what ever I can bring to the table. Good luck |
